Buyers in our part of Westchester are getting two signals that don’t fit together. Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in almost three years. Meanwhile the house you liked on a Sunday in Hastings or Irvington is under contract by Wednesday. So should you wait for rates to come down, or keep looking?
I spend every day with buyers from Hastings-on-Hudson up through Dobbs Ferry, Irvington, and Tarrytown. My honest view is that waiting is the riskier choice right now, and here’s why.
Where rates stand
As of early October, the 30-year fixed averages about 7.4% nationally. Bankrate has it at 7.55% and Money at 7.39%. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey came in at 7.28%, and rates have moved up since. The 15-year fixed is around 6.7% to 6.8%, and FHA and VA loans are in the low 7s. In New York, the 30-year averages closer to 7.1%.
That’s the highest level since November 2023, and nearly a full point above where we were a year ago. It’s a real change, and I understand why people notice it.
Why rates may not come back down soon
Many people expect rates to come back down soon. The evidence doesn’t really support that.
In September the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point, to 3.75%–4.00%. It was the Fed’s first increase in three years. Markets expect it to hold at the October 27–28 meeting but still give about a one-in-five chance of another hike. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects two more increases over the next twelve months. The Fed’s own projections put inflation at 3.7% this year, and its policymakers see the risks tilted toward higher inflation. Add oil prices pushed up by conflict in the Middle East and 10-year Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, and there isn’t much pulling mortgage rates down.
The forecasters don’t agree with each other. Fannie Mae sees about 6.8% by year-end, the MBA 6.5%, and Wells Fargo 6.9%. At the other end, forecasts.org has rates drifting slightly higher, into the low 7s through March. In Bankrate’s latest poll of experts, two-thirds expect rates to rise, and only 11% expect a decline. For New York over the next six months, a reasonable range is 6.75% to 7.40%. In that range, a modest improvement is the good case. Nobody credible is forecasting a return to 5%.
The reality on the ground in Westchester
Rates are only part of the picture. The bigger issue in Westchester is supply. There still aren’t enough homes, and buyers keep coming up from the city. In the school districts people move here for, a well-priced house still gets multiple offers, often in the first week.
The countywide median is now around $880,000. Home values countywide are up nearly 6% over the past year, and single-family prices rose 6.5% in 2025. Along the Metro-North corridor in the Sound Shore towns, inventory is measured in weeks. In the Tarrytown corridor, most homes trade between $750,000 and $950,000. Our river villages share the same pattern, with few listings, steady demand, and prices that keep rising.
Affordability is already stretched. One regional analysis found that a typical two-person household in Westchester falls about $372,000 short of the mortgage it would need to buy here, one of the widest gaps in the Hudson Valley. That shortfall hasn’t cooled demand, though. The buyers who can qualify are still competing for a small number of homes.
The math for buyers
Here’s the tradeoff, using a $600,000 loan as an example.
At about 7.4%, a quarter-point difference in rate is roughly $100 a month. Now say you wait, and the house you would have bought rises 3% while you do, which is below what this market did last year. On a $750,000 home, that’s $22,500 more. With 20% down, you’d borrow about $18,000 more and pay roughly $125 more a month for the life of the loan, plus $4,500 more at closing. You’d be worse off than if you had paid the higher rate.
There’s also an asymmetry. If rates fall after you buy, you can refinance. You can’t refinance the price you paid. A rate is temporary. The purchase price stays with you.
I’ve watched this play out more than once. A young couple moving up from Brooklyn found a house they loved a few blocks from the river. They decided to sit tight until rates came down “just a little.” It went to another family that weekend. They kept looking through the winter. Rates barely moved, and by spring the comparable houses were listing for noticeably more. They did buy, and they’re happy, but they paid more for a house they liked a bit less, at roughly the same rate. Meanwhile, the buyers who’d been ready to act that fall have since had the chance to refinance. They locked in their price, and they can still lower their rate.
What could prove this wrong
The real risk is a recession serious enough to force the Fed into deep cuts. In that case, rates and prices could both fall. I don’t dismiss it, but it isn’t the base case. The Fed is still worried about inflation, the job market is roughly balanced, and the shortage of homes here took years to build and won’t disappear in one soft quarter.
What I’d tell a buyer today
Get fully pre-approved now, before you find the house. Know which villages and school districts fit your life. When the right home comes up, be ready to move that week. Put your energy into negotiating the price, inspection terms, or seller credits, where you have real leverage, instead of trying to time the rate.
If rates ease next year, refinance and enjoy the savings. If they don’t, you’ll already own your home instead of competing against everyone who waited.
If you’re thinking about a move to Hastings, Dobbs Ferry, Irvington, or Tarrytown, stop by the office at 10 Spring Street or give me a call. I’m happy to walk you through what’s selling and what it really costs.
Ron Cohen, Rivertown Rose, 10 Spring Street, Hastings-on-Hudson